{"model_version":"bayes-risk-v1.0","generated_at":"2026-10-19T14:47:18.374425+00:00","n_predictions":28,"n_resolved":0,"n_active":28,"calibration_ready":false,"needed_for_calibration":50,"brier":{"n":0,"mean_brier":null,"baseline_brier":null,"skill_score":null},"auc":null,"calibration":[],"usage":{"n":28,"prob_bands":{"<10%":27,"10-20%":1,"20-50%":0,"50%+":0},"top_drivers":[{"code":"debt_without_ebitda","n":1}]},"challenger_ready":false,"needed_for_challenger":50,"spec":{"version":"bayes-risk-v1.0","method":"Naive Bayes log-odds (likelihood ratios)","base_rate":0.08,"horizon_days":365,"indicators":[{"code":"sanctions_hit","label":"Ταίριασμα κυρώσεων (FISMA)","lr":8.0},{"code":"negative_equity","label":"Αρνητικά ίδια κεφάλαια","lr":6.0},{"code":"deep_loss","label":"Ζημιά >50% κύκλου εργασιών","lr":3.5},{"code":"high_leverage","label":"Net Debt/EBITDA > 4x","lr":2.5},{"code":"debt_without_ebitda","label":"Χρέος χωρίς κάλυψη EBITDA","lr":2.5},{"code":"liquidity_gap","label":"Current ratio < 1","lr":2.2},{"code":"negative_margins","label":"Καθαρό περιθώριο < -10%","lr":2.0},{"code":"awards_decline","label":"Δημόσιες συμβάσεις -50% YoY","lr":1.8},{"code":"no_recent_activity","label":"Καμία νέα ανάθεση 18+ μήνες","lr":1.5}],"outcome_definition":"material deterioration ή sanctions hit εντός ορίζοντα","intended_use":"Early warning σε advisory/institutional workflows — ΟΧΙ πιστωτική απόφαση/rating.","assumptions":["Conditional independence των indicators (naive Bayes).","LRs = συντηρητικές αρχικές εκτιμήσεις, recalibrated με εκβάσεις.","Outcome proxy = risk_direction material deterioration/sanctions."],"limitations":["Μικρό δείγμα εκβάσεων έως σήμερα (horizon 12 μήνες).","Κάλυψη εξαρτάται από διαθεσιμότητα financials (ΓΕΜΗ).","Δεν ενσωματώνει μακρο-παράγοντες ή market-implied signals."],"governance":{"versioning":"Κάθε αλλαγή prior/LR/indicators = νέα version.","calibration_min_n":50,"challenger_min_n":50,"review":"Μηνιαίο backtest (scripts/backtest_risk_model.py)."}},"note":"Fail-honest: calibration/challenger ενεργοποιούνται μόνο με ≥50 έγκυρες εκβάσεις. Μέχρι τότε: usage + spec + Brier readiness."}